Long-Term Follow-Up Defines the Population That Benefits from Early Interception in a High-Risk Smoldering Multiple Myeloma Clinical Trial Using the Combination of Ixazomib, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone.

Background: Early therapeutic intervention in high-risk SMM (HR-SMM) has demonstrated benefit in previous studies of lenalidomide with or without dexamethasone. Triplets and quadruplet studies have been examined in this same population. However, to date, none of these studies examined the impact of depth of response on long-term outcomes of participants treated with lenalidomide-based therapy, and whether the use of the 20/2/20 model or the addition of genomic alterations can further define the population that would benefit the most from early therapeutic intervention. Here, we present the results of the phase II study of the combination of ixazomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone in patients with HR-SMM with long-term follow-up and baseline single-cell tumor and immune sequencing that help refine the population to be treated for early intervention studies. Methods: This is a phase II trial of ixazomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (IRD) in HR-SMM. Patients received 9 cycles of induction therapy with ixazomib 4mg on days 1, 8, and 15; lenalidomide 25mg on days 1-21; and dexamethasone 40mg on days 1, 8, 15, and 22. The induction phase was followed by maintenance with ixazomib 4mg on days 1, 8, and 15; and lenalidomide 15mg d1-21 for 15 cycles for 24 months of treatment. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival after 2 years of therapy. Secondary endpoints included depth of response, biochemical progression, and correlative studies included single-cell RNA sequencing and/or whole-genome sequencing of the tumor and single-cell sequencing of immune cells at baseline. Results: Fifty-five patients, with a median age of 64, were enrolled in the study. The overall response rate was 93%, with 31% of patients achieving a complete response and 45% achieving a very good partial response or better. The most common grade 3 or greater treatment-related hematologic toxicities were neutropenia (16 patients; 29%), leukopenia (10 patients; 18%), lymphocytopenia (8 patients; 15%), and thrombocytopenia (4 patients; 7%). Non-hematologic grade 3 or greater toxicities included hypophosphatemia (7 patients; 13%), rash (5 patients; 9%), and hypokalemia (4 patients; 7%). After a median follow-up of 50 months, the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 48.6 months (95% CI: 39.9 - not reached; NR) and median overall survival has not been reached. Patients achieving VGPR or better had a significantly better progression-free survival (p<0.001) compared to those who did not achieve VGPR (median PFS 58.2 months vs. 31.3 months). Biochemical progression preceded or was concurrent with the development of SLiM-CRAB criteria in eight patients during follow-up, indicating that biochemical progression is a meaningful endpoint that correlates with the development of end-organ damage. High-risk 20/2/20 participants had the worst PFS compared to low- and intermediate-risk participants. The use of whole genome or single-cell sequencing of tumor cells identified high-risk aberrations that were not identified by FISH alone and aided in the identification of participants at risk of progression. scRNA-seq analysis revealed a positive correlation between MHC class I expression and response to proteasome inhibition and at the same time a decreased proportion of GZMB+ T cells within the clonally expanded CD8+ T cell population correlated with suboptimal response. Conclusions: Ixazomib, lenalidomide and dexamethasone in HR-SMM demonstrates significant clinical activity with an overall favorable safety profile. Achievement of VGPR or greater led to significant improvement in time to progression, suggesting that achieving deep response is beneficial in HR-SMM. Biochemical progression correlates with end-organ damage. Patients with high-risk FISH and lack of deep response had poor outcomes. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: (NCT02916771).

Design and Rationale of Prolonged Nightly Fasting for Multiple Myeloma Prevention (PROFAST): Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Pilot Trial.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is an established, modifiable risk factor of multiple myeloma (MM); yet, no lifestyle interventions are routinely recommended for patients with overweight or obesity with MM precursor conditions. Prolonged nightly fasting is a simple, practical dietary regimen supported by research, suggesting that the synchronization of feeding-fasting timing with sleep-wake cycles favorably affects metabolic pathways implicated in MM. We describe the design and rationale of a randomized controlled pilot trial evaluating the efficacy of a regular, prolonged nighttime fasting schedule among individuals with overweight or obesity at high risk for developing MM or a related lymphoid malignancy. OBJECTIVE: We aim to investigate the effects of 4-month prolonged nightly fasting on body composition and tumor biomarkers among individuals with overweight or obesity with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), or smoldering Waldenström macroglobulinemia (SWM). METHODS: Individuals with MGUS, SMM, or SWM aged ≥18 years and a BMI of ≥25 kg/m2 are randomized to either a 14-hour nighttime fasting intervention or a healthy lifestyle education control group. Participants' baseline diet and lifestyle patterns are characterized through two 24-hour dietary recalls: questionnaires querying demographic, comorbidity, lifestyle, and quality-of-life information; and wrist actigraphy measurements for 7 days. Fasting intervention participants are supported through one-on-one telephone counseling by a health coach and automated SMS text messaging to support fasting goals. Primary end points of body composition, including visceral and subcutaneous fat (by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry); bone marrow adiposity (by bone marrow histology); and tumor biomarkers, specifically M-proteins and serum free light-chain concentrations (by gel-based and serum free light-chain assays), are assessed at baseline and after the 4-month study period; changes therein from baseline are evaluated using a repeated measures mixed-effects model that accounts for the correlation between baseline and follow-up measures and is generally robust to missing data. Feasibility is assessed as participant retention (percent dropout in each arm) and percentage of days participants achieved a ≥14-hour fast. RESULTS: The PROlonged nightly FASTing (PROFAST) study was funded in June 2022. Participant recruitment commenced in April 2023. As of July 2023, six participants consented to the study. The study is expected to be completed by April 2024, and data analysis and results are expected to be published in the first quarter of 2025. CONCLUSIONS: PROFAST serves as an important first step in exploring the premise that prolonged nightly fasting is a strategy to control obesity and obesity-related mechanisms of myelomagenesis. In evaluating the feasibility and impact of prolonged nightly fasting on body composition, bone marrow adipose tissue, and biomarkers of tumor burden, this pilot study may generate hypotheses regarding metabolic mechanisms underlying MM development and ultimately inform clinical and public health strategies for MM prevention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05565638; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05565638. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/51368.

Effect of atorvastatin versus placebo on efficacy in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma receiving R-CHOP.

STOP-CA was a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial comparing atorvastatin to placebo in treatment-naïve lymphoma patients receiving anthracycline-based chemotherapy. We performed a preplanned subgroup to analyze the impact of atorvastatin on efficacy in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Patients received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) at standard doses for six 21-day cycles and were randomly assigned to receive atorvastatin 40 mg daily (n = 55) or placebo (n = 47) for 12 months. The complete response (CR) rate was numerically higher in the atorvastatin arm (95% [52/55] vs. 85% [40/47], p = .18), but this was not statistically significant. Adverse event rates were similar between the atorvastatin and placebo arms. In summary, atorvastatin did not result in a statistically significant improvement in the CR rate or progression-free survival, but both were numerically improved in the atorvastatin arm. These data warrant further investigation into the potential therapeutic role of atorvastatin added to anthracycline-based chemotherapies.

Mass spectrometry-detected MGUS is associated with obesity and other novel modifiable risk factors in a high-risk population.

ABSTRACT: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant condition of multiple myeloma with few known risk factors. The emergence of mass spectrometry (MS) for the detection of MGUS has provided new opportunities to evaluate its risk factors. In total, 2628 individuals at elevated risk for multiple myeloma were enrolled in a screening study and completed an exposure survey (PROMISE trial). Participant samples were screened by MS, and monoclonal proteins (M-proteins) with concentrations of ≥0.2 g/L were categorized as MS-MGUS. Multivariable logistic models evaluated associations between exposures and MS outcomes. Compared with normal weight (body mass index [BMI] of 18.5 to <25 kg/m2), obesity (BMI of ≥30 kg/m2) was associated with MS-MGUS, adjusting for age, sex, Black race, education, and income (odds ratio [OR], 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-2.47; P = .003). High physical activity (≥73.5 metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-hours per week vs <10.5 MET-hours per week) had a decreased likelihood of MS-MGUS (OR, 0.45, 95% CI, 0.24-0.80; P = .009), whereas heavy smoking and short sleep had increased likelihood of MS-MGUS (>30 pack-years vs never smoker: OR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.24-3.74; P = .005, and sleep <6 vs ≥6 hours per day: OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.26-3.42; P = .003). In the analysis of all MS-detected monoclonal gammopathies, which are inclusive of M-proteins with concentrations of <0.2 g/L, elevated BMI and smoking were associated with all MS-positive cases. Findings suggest MS-detected monoclonal gammopathies are associated with a broader range of modifiable risk factors than what has been previously identified. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03689595.

A multi-cohort phase 1b trial of rituximab in combination with immunotherapy doublets in relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma.

Antibodies targeting PD-1 or 4-1BB achieve objective responses in follicular lymphoma (FL), but only in a minority of patients. We hypothesized that targeting multiple immune receptors could overcome immune resistance and increase response rates in patients with relapsed/refractory FL. We therefore conducted a phase 1b trial testing time-limited therapy with different immunotherapy doublets targeting 4-1BB (utomilumab), OX-40 (ivuxolimab), and PD-L1 (avelumab) in combination with rituximab among patients with relapsed/refractory grade 1-3A FL. Patients were enrolled onto 2 of 3 planned cohorts (cohort 1 - rituximab/utomilumab/avelumab; cohort 2 - rituximab/ivuxolimab/utomilumab). 3+3 dose escalation was followed by dose expansion at the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D). Twenty-four patients were enrolled (16 in cohort 1 and 9 in cohort 2, with one treated in both cohorts). No patients discontinued treatment due to adverse events and the RP2D was the highest dose level tested in both cohorts. In cohort 1, the objective and complete response rates were 44% and 19%, respectively (50% and 30%, respectively, at RP2D). In cohort 2, no responses were observed. The median progression-free survivals in cohorts 1 and 2 were 6.9 and 3.2 months, respectively. In cohort 1, higher density of PD-1+ tumor-infiltrating T-cells on baseline biopsies and lower density of 4-1BB+ and TIGIT+ T-cells in on-treatment biopsies were associated with response. Abundance of Akkermansia in stool samples was also associated with response. Our results support a possible role for 4-1BB agonist therapy in FL and suggest that features of the tumor microenvironment and stool microbiome may be associated with clinical outcomes (NCT03636503).

Second-Line Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: First-line treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) achieves durable remission in approximately 60% of patients. In relapsed or refractory disease, only about 20% achieve durable remission with salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). The ZUMA-7 (axicabtagene ciloleucel [axi-cel]) and TRANSFORM (lisocabtagene maraleucel [liso-cel]) trials demonstrated superior event-free survival (and, in ZUMA-7, overall survival) in primary-refractory or early-relapsed (high-risk) DLBCL with chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy (CAR-T) compared with salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative ASCT; however, list prices for CAR-T exceed $400 000 per infusion. OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness of second-line CAR-T versus salvage chemoimmunotherapy and consolidative ASCT. DESIGN: State-transition microsimulation model. DATA SOURCES: ZUMA-7, TRANSFORM, other trials, and observational data. TARGET POPULATION: "High-risk" patients with DLBCL. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care sector. INTERVENTION: Axi-cel or liso-cel versus ASCT. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) in 2022 U.S. dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $200 000 per QALY. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: The increase in median overall survival was 4 months for axi-cel and 1 month for liso-cel. For axi-cel, the ICER was $684 225 per QALY and the iNMB was -$107 642. For liso-cel, the ICER was $1 171 909 per QALY and the iNMB was -$102 477. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: To be cost-effective with a WTP of $200 000, the cost of CAR-T would have to be reduced to $321 123 for axi-cel and $313 730 for liso-cel. Implementation in high-risk patients would increase U.S. health care spending by approximately $6.8 billion over a 5-year period. LIMITATION: Differences in preinfusion bridging therapies precluded cross-trial comparisons. CONCLUSION: Neither second-line axi-cel nor liso-cel was cost-effective at a WTP of $200 000 per QALY. Clinical outcomes improved incrementally, but costs of CAR-T must be lowered substantially to enable cost-effectiveness. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: No research-specific funding.

Clinical Outcomes and Evolution of Clonal Hematopoiesis in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma.

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) at time of autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) has been shown to be associated with decreased overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with multiple myeloma not receiving immunomodulatory drugs (IMiD). However, the significance of CH in newly diagnosed patients, including transplant ineligible patients, and its effect on clonal evolution during multiple myeloma therapy in the era of novel agents, has not been well studied. Using our new algorithm to differentiate tumor and germline mutations from CH, we detected CH in approximately 10% of 986 patients with multiple myeloma from the Clinical Outcomes in MM to Personal Assessment of Genetic Profile (CoMMpass) cohort (40/529 transplanted and 59/457 non-transplanted patients). CH was associated with increased age, risk of recurrent bacterial infections and cardiovascular disease. CH at time of multiple myeloma diagnosis was not associated with inferior OS or PFS regardless of undergoing ASCT, and all patients benefited from IMiD-based therapies, irrespective of the presence of CH. Serial sampling of 52 patients revealed the emergence of CH over a median of 3 years of treatment, increasing its prevalence to 25%, mostly with DNMT3A mutations. SIGNIFICANCE: Using our algorithm to differentiate tumor and germline mutations from CH mutations, we detected CH in approximately 10% of patients with newly diagnosed myeloma, including both transplant eligible and ineligible patients. Receiving IMiDs improved outcomes irrespective of CH status, but the prevalence of CH significantly rose throughout myeloma-directed therapy.

Combined analysis of the impact of second-generation BTK inhibitors on patient outcomes.

BTK inhibitors (BTKi) are highly effective in B-cell malignancies. Acalabrutinib and zanubrutinib have exhibited favorable safety profiles when compared with ibrutinib. We identified all published/presented randomized trials comparing a second-generation BTKi with ibrutinib and reconstructed individual patient-level, censored time-to-event data for adverse events to evaluate the impact of second-generation BTKi on safety outcomes including atrial fibrillation/flutter [AF], hypertension, bleeding, diarrhea, and infection. 1386 pts from ELEVATE-RR (n = 533), ALPINE (n = 652), and ASPEN (n = 201) trials were included in the analyses. Acalabrutinib or zanubrutinib were associated with significant reductions in cumulative event rates of AF (HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.18-0.42, p < 0.001), bleeding (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.81, p < 0.001), diarrhea (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.47-0.78, p < 0.001), hypertension (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.27-0.61, p < 0.001), and infections (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.98, p = 0.032). In summary, zanubrutinib and acalabrutinib have a favorable safety profile among pts with r/r B-cell malignancies. These data support use of acalabrutinib or zanubrutinib as preferred BTK inhibitors for approved indications.

Generation of mouse models carrying B cell restricted single or multiplexed loss-of-function mutations through CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing.

Here, we present a protocol to generate B cell restricted mouse models of loss-of-function genetic drivers typical of lymphoproliferative disorders, using stem cell engineering of murine strains carrying B cell restricted Cas9 expression. We describe steps for preparing lentivirus expressing sgRNA-mCherry, isolating hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells, and in vitro transduction. We then detail the transplantation of engineered cells into recipient mice and verification of gene edits. These mouse models represent versatile platforms to model complex disease traits typical of lymphoproliferative disorders. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to ten Hacken et al.,1 ten Hacken et al.,2 and ten Hacken et al.3.

Atorvastatin for Anthracycline-Associated Cardiac Dysfunction: The STOP-CA Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Anthracyclines treat a broad range of cancers. Basic and retrospective clinical data have suggested that use of atorvastatin may be associated with a reduction in cardiac dysfunction due to anthracycline use. Objective: To test whether atorvastatin is associated with a reduction in the proportion of patients with lymphoma receiving anthracyclines who develop cardiac dysfunction. Design, Setting, and Participants: Double-blind randomized clinical trial conducted at 9 academic medical centers in the US and Canada among 300 patients with lymphoma who were scheduled to receive anthracycline-based chemotherapy. Enrollment occurred between January 25, 2017, and September 10, 2021, with final follow-up on October 10, 2022. Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive atorvastatin, 40 mg/d (n = 150), or placebo (n = 150) for 12 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with an absolute decline in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of ≥10% from prior to chemotherapy to a final value of <55% over 12 months. A secondary outcome was the proportion of participants with an absolute decline in LVEF of ≥5% from prior to chemotherapy to a final value of <55% over 12 months. Results: Of the 300 participants randomized (mean age, 50 [SD, 17] years; 142 women [47%]), 286 (95%) completed the trial. Among the entire cohort, the baseline mean LVEF was 63% (SD, 4.6%) and the follow-up LVEF was 58% (SD, 5.7%). Study drug adherence was noted in 91% of participants. At 12-month follow-up, 46 (15%) had a decline in LVEF of 10% or greater from prior to chemotherapy to a final value of less than 55%. The incidence of the primary end point was 9% (13/150) in the atorvastatin group and 22% (33/150) in the placebo group (P = .002). The odds of a 10% or greater decline in LVEF to a final value of less than 55% after anthracycline treatment was almost 3 times greater for participants randomized to placebo compared with those randomized to atorvastatin (odds ratio, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.4-6.4). Compared with placebo, atorvastatin also reduced the incidence of the secondary end point (13% vs 29%; P = .001). There were 13 adjudicated heart failure events (4%) over 24 months of follow-up. There was no difference in the rates of incident heart failure between study groups (3% with atorvastatin, 6% with placebo; P = .26). The number of serious related adverse events was low and similar between groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with lymphoma treated with anthracycline-based chemotherapy, atorvastatin reduced the incidence of cardiac dysfunction. This finding may support the use of atorvastatin in patients with lymphoma at high risk of cardiac dysfunction due to anthracycline use. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02943590.

Clinical efficacy and safety of chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy for mantle cell lymphoma with secondary central nervous system involvement.

Data describing outcomes of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy in patients with secondary central nervous system (SCNS) involvement of mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) are limited. We identified 10 patients with MCL and SCNS involvement treated with anti-CD19 CAR T-cell therapy at three US academic centres. Frequent objective responses were observed in the CNS (86%) and systemically (90%), and the 1-year progression-free survival was 47%. Seven patients developed immune-effector-cell-associated-neurotoxicity-syndrome (n = 2 Grade 1, n = 5 Grade 3). Our results suggest that anti-CD19 CAR T-cell therapy in this setting is feasible and additional data regarding neurotoxicity in this population may be warranted.

MYD88L265P augments proximal B-cell receptor signaling in large B-cell lymphomas via an interaction with DOCK8.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous disease with at least 5 recognized molecular subtypes. Cluster 5 (C5)/MCD tumors frequently exhibit concurrent alterations in the toll-like receptor (TLR) and B-cell receptor (BCR) pathway members, MYD88L265P and CD79B, and have a less favorable prognosis. In healthy B cells, the synergy between TLR and BCR signaling pathways integrates innate and adaptive immune responses and augments downstream NF-κB activation. In addition, physiologic TLR9 pathway engagement via MYD88, protein tyrosine kinase 2 (PYK2), and dedicator of cytokinesis 8 (DOCK8) increases proximal BCR signaling in healthy murine B cells. Although C5/MCD DLBCLs are selectively sensitive to Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibition in in vitro studies and certain clinical trials, the role of mutated MYD88 in proximal BCR signaling remains undefined. Using engineered DLBCL cell line models, we found that concurrent MYD88L265P and CD79B alterations significantly increased the magnitude and duration of proximal BCR signaling, at the level of spleen tyrosine kinase and BTK, and augmented PYK2-dependent DOCK8 phosphorylation. MYD88L265P DLBCLs have significantly increased colocalization of DOCK8 with both MYD88 and the proximal BCR-associated Src kinase, LYN, in comparison with MYD88WT DLBCLs, implicating DOCK8 in MYD88L265P/proximal BCR cross talk. Additionally, DOCK8 depletion selectively decreased proximal BCR signaling, cellular proliferation, and viability of DLBCLs with endogenous MYD88L265P/CD79BY196F alterations and increased the efficacy of BTK blockade in these lymphomas. Therefore, MYD88L265P/DOCK8-enhanced proximal BCR signaling is a likely mechanism for the increased sensitivity of C5/MCD DLBCLs to BTK blockade.

A phase 2 study of pembrolizumab after autologous stem cell transplantation in patients with T-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is often used as consolidation for several subtypes of peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) in first remission. However, many patients relapse after ASCT and have a very poor prognosis. There are no approved treatment options for posttransplantation maintenance or consolidation in PTCL. PD-1 blockade has demonstrated some efficacy for patients with PTCL. We, therefore, conducted a phase 2 multicenter study of the anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody pembrolizumab after ASCT in patients with PTCL in first remission. Pembrolizumab was administered at 200 mg IV every 3 weeks for up to 8 cycles within 21 days from post-ASCT discharge (and within 60 days of stem cell infusion). The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) at 18 months after ASCT. Twenty-one patients were treated in this study and 67% (n = 14) completed 8 cycles of treatment. Among all patients who were evaluable, 13 of 21 were alive and achieved PFS at 18 months after ASCT, meeting the study's primary end point. The estimated 18-month PFS was 83.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68-100), and overall survival 94.4% (95% CI, 84-100). The toxicity profile was consistent with the known toxicity profile of pembrolizumab, with no grade 5 toxicities. In conclusion, PD-1 blockade after ASCT with pembrolizumab is feasible with a favorable safety profile and promising activity, supporting further confirmatory studies. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02362997.

Looking ahead in early-phase trial design to improve the drug development process: examples in oncology.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trial design must consider the specific resource constraints and overall goals of the drug development process (DDP); for example, in designing a phase I trial to evaluate the safety of a drug and recommend a dose for a subsequent phase II trial. Here, we focus on design considerations that involve the sequence of clinical trials, from early phase I to late phase III, that constitute the DDP. METHODS: We discuss how stylized simulation models of clinical trials in an oncology DDP can quantify important relationships between early-phase trial designs and their consequences for the remaining phases of development. Simulations for three illustrative settings are presented, using stylized models of the DDP that mimic trial designs and decisions, such as the potential discontinuation of the DDP. RESULTS: We describe: (1) the relationship between a phase II single-arm trial sample size and the likelihood of a positive result in a subsequent phase III confirmatory trial; (2) the impact of a phase I dose-finding design on the likelihood that the DDP will produce evidence of a safe and effective therapy; and (3) the impact of a phase II enrichment trial design on the operating characteristics of a subsequent phase III confirmatory trial. CONCLUSIONS: Stylized models of the DDP can support key decisions, such as the sample size, in the design of early-phase trials. Simulation models can be used to estimate performance metrics of the DDP under realistic scenarios; for example, the duration and the total number of patients enrolled. These estimates complement the evaluation of the operating characteristics of early-phase trial design, such as power or accuracy in selecting safe and effective dose levels.

Personalised progression prediction in patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma (PANGEA): a retrospective, multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with precursors to multiple myeloma are dichotomised as having monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma on the basis of monoclonal protein concentrations or bone marrow plasma cell percentage. Current risk stratifications use laboratory measurements at diagnosis and do not incorporate time-varying biomarkers. Our goal was to develop a monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smouldering multiple myeloma stratification algorithm that utilised accessible, time-varying biomarkers to model risk of progression to multiple myeloma. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicohort study, we included patients who were 18 years or older with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma. We evaluated several modelling approaches for predicting disease progression to multiple myeloma using a training cohort (with patients at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, USA; annotated from Nov, 13, 2019, to April, 13, 2022). We created the PANGEA models, which used data on biomarkers (monoclonal protein concentration, free light chain ratio, age, creatinine concentration, and bone marrow plasma cell percentage) and haemoglobin trajectories from medical records to predict progression from precursor disease to multiple myeloma. The models were validated in two independent validation cohorts from National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (Athens, Greece; from Jan 26, 2020, to Feb 7, 2022; validation cohort 1), University College London (London, UK; from June 9, 2020, to April 10, 2022; validation cohort 1), and Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies (Czech Republic, Czech Republic; Jan 5, 2004, to March 10, 2022; validation cohort 2). We compared the PANGEA models (with bone marrow [BM] data and without bone marrow [no BM] data) to current criteria (International Myeloma Working Group [IMWG] monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and 20/2/20 smouldering multiple myeloma risk criteria). FINDINGS: We included 6441 patients, 4931 (77%) with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and 1510 (23%) with smouldering multiple myeloma. 3430 (53%) of 6441 participants were female. The PANGEA model (BM) improved prediction of progression from smouldering multiple myeloma to multiple myeloma compared with the 20/2/20 model, with a C-statistic increase from 0·533 (0·480-0·709) to 0·756 (0·629-0·785) at patient visit 1 to the clinic, 0·613 (0·504-0·704) to 0·720 (0·592-0·775) at visit 2, and 0·637 (0·386-0·841) to 0·756 (0·547-0·830) at visit three in validation cohort 1. The PANGEA model (no BM) improved prediction of smouldering multiple myeloma progression to multiple myeloma compared with the 20/2/20 model with a C-statistic increase from 0·534 (0·501-0·672) to 0·692 (0·614-0·736) at visit 1, 0·573 (0·518-0·647) to 0·693 (0·605-0·734) at visit 2, and 0·560 (0·497-0·645) to 0·692 (0·570-0·708) at visit 3 in validation cohort 1. The PANGEA models improved prediction of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance progression to multiple myeloma compared with the IMWG rolling model at visit 1 in validation cohort 2, with C-statistics increases from 0·640 (0·518-0·718) to 0·729 (0·643-0·941) for the PANGEA model (BM) and 0·670 (0·523-0·729) to 0·879 (0·586-0·938) for the PANGEA model (no BM). INTERPRETATION: Use of the PANGEA models in clinical practice will allow patients with precursor disease to receive more accurate measures of their risk of progression to multiple myeloma, thus prompting for more appropriate treatment strategies. FUNDING: SU2C Dream Team and Cancer Research UK.

Accessible Data Collections for Improved Decision Making in Neuro-Oncology Clinical Trials.

Drug development can be associated with slow timelines, particularly for rare or difficult-to-treat solid tumors such as glioblastoma. The use of external data in the design and analysis of trials has attracted significant interest because it has the potential to improve the efficiency and precision of drug development. A recurring challenge in the use of external data for clinical trials, however, is the difficulty in accessing high-quality patient-level data. Academic research groups generally do not have access to suitable datasets to effectively leverage external data for planning and analyses of new clinical trials. Given the need for resources to enable investigators to benefit from existing data assets, we have developed the Glioblastoma External (GBM-X) Data Platform which will allow investigators in neuro-oncology to leverage our data collection and obtain analyses. GBM-X strives to provide an uncomplicated process to use external data, contextualize single-arm trials, and improve inference on treatment effects early in drug development. The platform is designed to welcome interested collaborators and integrate new data into the platform, with the expectation that the data collection can continue to grow and remain updated. With such features, GBM-X is designed to help to accelerate evaluation of therapies, to grow with collaborations, and to serve as a model to improve drug discovery for rare and difficult-to-treat tumors in oncology.

Evolutionary history of transformation from chronic lymphocytic leukemia to Richter syndrome.

Richter syndrome (RS) arising from chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) exemplifies an aggressive malignancy that develops from an indolent neoplasm. To decipher the genetics underlying this transformation, we computationally deconvoluted admixtures of CLL and RS cells from 52 patients with RS, evaluating paired CLL-RS whole-exome sequencing data. We discovered RS-specific somatic driver mutations (including IRF2BP2, SRSF1, B2M, DNMT3A and CCND3), recurrent copy-number alterations beyond del(9p21)(CDKN2A/B), whole-genome duplication and chromothripsis, which were confirmed in 45 independent RS cases and in an external set of RS whole genomes. Through unsupervised clustering, clonally related RS was largely distinct from diffuse large B cell lymphoma. We distinguished pathways that were dysregulated in RS versus CLL, and detected clonal evolution of transformation at single-cell resolution, identifying intermediate cell states. Our study defines distinct molecular subtypes of RS and highlights cell-free DNA analysis as a potential tool for early diagnosis and monitoring.